This year, palm oil futures showed a clear long trend, up about 32% during the year. Since August, the palm oil futures price break through the previous consolidation range continued to rise, as of yesterday's close, palm oil main 1705 contract reported 6428 yuan / ton, another year high, intraday gains 2.19%.
Not only palm oil, recently in the international oil market "under the heat" under the soybean oil, vegetable oil and other oil futures prices are all boosted. Oil production agreement to push up crude oil prices breakthrough and stand 50 US dollars / barrel mark, biodiesel prices are supported, especially palm oil and crude oil trend since the beginning of last year, a substantial increase since the number one palm oil producer Indonesia will biodiesel subsidies A substantial increase of three times.
From a long-term consumption perspective, the industry said that taking into account the major importing countries, the decline in import demand, the demand for biodiesel industry is still the key to the trend of palm oil prices.
From the international market point of view, China, India is the main demand for palm oil and importing countries. December 14 at noon Malaysian Palm Oil Board released official palm oil November production inventory data. From the relevant data can be a glimpse of the recent palm oil supply and demand situation: November Malay palm oil production was 1.57 million tons, the chain in October than the 1.68 million tons fell 6.1%, lower than the market estimate of 1.63 million tons; Palm oil exports 1.37 million tons, down 4.2% from 1.43 million tons last month, higher than the market forecast of 1.29 million tons; the end of November Malay palm oil stocks increased 5.2% last month to 1.656 million tons, slightly lower than previously Market estimates of 1.69 million tons. The report is mostly neutral. On the export side, palm oil exports in Malaysia continued to decline in November, mainly due to the reduction of imports from India and the European Union, of which India's chain to reduce the 72,500 tons, the EU chain to reduce 63,600 tons; but China's imports increased by 30,500 tons, Oil exports are generally better than market expectations.
China, the United States Ya (600107) Futures Agricultural Products (000061) research group that in November and early December, China's palm oil import profits opened, the buyer increased shipments, making November exports to China, Increase; but into the middle of December, South China and North China is once again imported upside down to curb the enthusiasm of buyers ship.
As of December 14, China's palm oil port inventory of 293,500 tons, an increase over the same period last month 44,000 tons, but still far lower than the same period last year; coupled with the domestic Pro vegetable oil auction continued hot and soybean oil stocks decreased since the end of November domestic Palm oil spot prices once again rise.
Mayya Futures Research said that overall, for the last month of last year, Malaysian palm oil production, to maintain the chain continued to lower expectations, the estimated value of 1.6 million tons to 17 million tons, low inventory support horse palm oil to continue high Run, support level moved to 2950 points -3000 points range. Palm oil low inventory, Pro vegetable oil auction good sales support, short-term, including palm oil, including the three major domestic oil will continue to run high.
Headquartered in London, investment bank VSA Capital Limited (VSA Capital) said that China's palm oil stocks with low 2015/2016 El Niño continued and other factors, will support next year's palm oil prices.