Biodiesel Machine The beauty of the king ” of “ commodity praise not be the —— that blow is in soare continuously in the process that steep fall, the attribute of heavy goods bibcock of crude oil is ceaseless aggrandizement. To produce, the new coordinate —— that the consequence of crude oil can surmount supply demand relations sometimes and makes produce market is almost all produce futures breed and oil price relation appear so close.
Current, international oil price is like have the sign that build a base. And produce bull people also begin itch to try. But analytic personage points out, look from main area, both and fundamental moving direction is consistent, walk along an ox for a long time to return the Shang Zao of character. And, both and fluctuant extent has difference, see the top sees end time is existing difference, produce investor should hold good rhythm.
Grain price enters crude oil to be retreated in all together
Although not as good as chemical industry is tasted with the close together sex between crude oil, but the research organization says, the connection “ between price of the sources of energy and produce price is probable had ” from the period that still uses Ma Laila car. The element that both connection mirrors instead includes crop to get on fuel of the biology that make increasingly sufficient use, and crude oil and its by-product (chemical fertilizer) the importance that regards a production of farmer as cost.
Accept the personage explanation that the reporter interviews, crude price drops the price that will help low benzine, derv, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, farming film, herbicide wait directly, the production that this will reduce produce and agricultural and mechanical production, carry wait for cost, drive produce price fall after a rise. Oil price tall look forward to still brings about the manufacturing profit of the biology the sources of energy such as derv of fuel alcohol, biology to drop, be sure to bring adverse effect to relevant produce price. In the produce that produces fuel alcohol, corn is occupied 50% , sugar cane is occupied 40% , other wheaten, beet, cassava waits, biology derv involves soya-bean oil, palm oil waits. And partial produce price goes low to still can drive fall after a rise of price of other agriculture products, bring about produce whole to maintain thereby low move.
For example, crude oil has larger area to move action to grease. Fall after a rise of price of near future crude, dozen control palm oil price. Because palm oil is the breed with the relatively inferior value in grease, regard the mix into add of soya-bean oil as substitute commonly, it is international go up especially Europe’s important biology fuel raw material.
International casts bank of travel New Zealand to say, till 2015 previously, the value general interest of commissariat and crude oil is to enter what retreat in all together, protruding shows both and driving correlativity. “ is conveyed with academic word, both the correlation coefficient since 1990 is + 0.92, and it is taller since 2000 + 0.94. ” should express all right, what the data that its publish every months with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations regards commissariat as the price is fiducial. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
New Zealand bank says, price of “ feebleminded source is helpful for producing more food, if other factor keeps changeless. Bank of ” New Zealand expresses, and more yielding mean commissariat price to be in low.
Meanwhile, low confused crude price also the ability ” that “ weakened the sources of energy to produce business to pay higher price for commissariat. This one factor is very obvious already, already had in Russia produce market for example reflect (although its influence got,punish is disturbed with what oppose sanction) .
Small brave of Cheng of assistant of director of institute of finance of treasure city futures says, from the point of the linkage mechanism of crude oil and produce price, have two effects way: It is crude oil and produce existence the sources of energy replace a relation, product of its middle peasant can regard production biology as the raw material of fuel. Statistical discovery, the biology energy project such as fuel alcohol and biology derv and international crude option market were formed assist full impact, namely 3 person the action mechanism that had associated sex and mutual effect. 2 be, crude oil and produce can serve as the synchronous index that measures inflation, because this both is in,also have similar action to developing inflationary field. Accordingly, will for a long time look, crude price and produce price also exist medium slant the positive that go up involves a concern.
Yang Li of researcher of Founder metaphase futures is graceful think, expression is the relation majority between crude oil and produce to be driven secondhand. Above all, crude oil is one of the mainest heavy goods, also be the basic raw material of the production of a lot of commodity, because wave motion of this crude oil affects his to produce cost, produce is cultivated in use Agricultural Machinery and Implement and manufacturing data and crude price wave motion are relevant, because this also is met,be affected secondhand. Next, crude oil holds a commodity attribute and financial attribute concurrently, if affect the demand of produce because of circumstance of macroscopical economy boom, also can produce linkage impact with crude oil. The 3rd, partial produce, be like grease kind, corn, candy, because biology fuel production is arisen, yield downstream to crude oil taste the replacing with be formed certain action, produced farther close tie thereby, linkage aggravate. Normally crude price wave motion conducts meeting influence relevant produce goes situation, but produce goes situation form hard however counteractive.
Produce runs considerably beat oil price
Nevertheless, 2014 since end, both price connection is broken, oil price falls a Yuan Chaonong product value drops extent.
“ goes one year half in, commissariat price runnings considerably beat crude price, bank of ” New Zealand expresses. “ produces the angle of business to look from commissariat, he is likely may not thinks so, because grain price also fell. Just grain price is far what drop without oil price is so much. ”#p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
The value of commissariat and crude oil changes than also happening accordingly, this is in 2005-2015 year in most time “ wanders at low the price of a times ” of ——2 is compared returned the level of 4 times. Since taking the place of 1990, grain / oil price case is in than all failing 4 times over continuously longer time (the high point at that time is 10 times) .
Cheng Xiaoyong says, in recent years, because global economy is low,confuse, inflation is moderate, among the trend that because this both lies,synchronism drops. However, after squeezing an inflationary moisture as a result of partial produce supply demand relations, its value may be relative crude oil is strong, drop somewhat difference. And, as crude price drop, its are in fuel alcohol and biology derv inferior position of the existence on cost, make biology fuel yields drop, cause produce stock finally general tall look forward to.
In recent years crude oil and produce price go “ situation, because be in global economy to develop the process that put delay, be in price be issued to lower levels basically together in, but linkage sex somewhat abate, what supply and demand reachs commodity oneself is seasonal regular dominant both go situation. Graceful analysis of ” Yang Li, in recent years biology fuel concept is changed infirmly, after crude price drops considerably, relevant product produces the economy of biology fuel to worsen, it is with biology derv exemple, if do not have corresponding vegetable oil,allowance reachs manufacturing country to add policy support compulsively, criterion biology derv development is in low afterwards has been been hard under confused crude price. Suffer this effect, crude oil and sex of plant oily linkage relatively the photograph when perch of case of biology derv concept is arisen and original oil price moves is compared already greatly abate.
Difficult walk out of prices of independent ox city
The city after looking into, market personage thinks, suffer global economy progress to fall fast influence, crude oil goes situation continuously low fan, and advocate produce a country to supply and not easy and effective cut, foundation of crude oil sound builds a bottom to still need economic situation to turn warm demand improves. And in this process, produce just needed to support because of oneself, and supply and demand changes, expression must have independent character more.
Yang Li is graceful say, for instance palm oil affects occurrence reduction in production because of climate of ell Ni Nuo, and advocate devaluation yield a country, square metabolic extent is supplied in this process bigger offsetted demand square adverse effect, price performance is relatively strong, so crude oil can appear to his adverse effect bigger change infirmly, change of oneself supply demand relations becomes dominant. Crude oil and its price go the diversity degree of situation to be able to appear on stage show bigger difference. Do not have friendly intercourse to take situation change for a long time, fundamental moving direction still has consistency, it is fluctuant extent only, see the top sees end time is existing difference. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
To produce bull, near future mood is loosened somewhat, because oil price is in,rebound. Yesterday, crude oil breaks through Bulunte for a time every pails of 35 dollars, relatively on January 20 of 27.1 dollars low rebound considerably.
Of price of the sources of energy rebound to had helped exciting cereal demand possibly, it causes price of American alcohol gas once more under gas price. “ last week 5 begin, gas price exceeds alcohol benzine value again, make alcohol benzine is regarded as ‘ to make the ’ gas that folded once more, the abstraction that gives alcohol thereby brings openly pressure, CHSHedging of ” broker dealer expresses.
But the TreggCronin of HaloCommodity of dealer of American grain broker expresses, “ drops to bottom in oil price before, see those who last grain price appears hard rebound ” .
Cheng Xiaoyong says, because consumption is replaced,do not suit crude oil and produce price to go tall with inflationary environment, grow because of economy plus petroliferous country lack of power, do not be willing to cut reduction in production more can, crude price lasts low, and what produce replaces in the fall that grows cost and biology the sources of energy is weak change, also walk out of independent bovine city prices hard.