Biodiesel Machine Fuel alcohol: 2014 the fluctuant surging forward with great momentum of American alcohol price, fluctuant interval is 1.48-3.15 dollar / gallon, annual crop hopeful exceeds 14 billion gallon, achieve historical record. The driving Pan Shengcheng of consumptive growth and exit is the main impetus that output grows. But suffer crude oil be a burden on, predicting next year grows impetus to be afterwards hard. Brazilian alcohol look is good to producing accrual whole at raw sugar, stimulative 14/15 extracts what season alcohol compares with sugar cane to rise, make ethanol production relatively strong. But exit acute decreases alcohol of be a burden on total sales volume. Next alcohol that extract season still have uncertainty with sugar cane comparing, on one hand anhydrous alcohol and growth of hydrous alcohol consumption use stimulative alcohol sugar cane comparing to rise, but Leiyaer devalues continuously your sugar-refinery deflection at producing more raw sugar. ? Biology derv: The vacuum that industry of American biology derv stimulated completely at policy 2014 period, suffer crude oil to walked along photograph of price of derv of biology of weak be a burden on to drop than the beginning of the year 21.35% , output of derv of predicting annual biology will fall 10%-12% comes 100 million gallon of 11.8-12. The United States will restore 2014 taxation allowance, but good to having substantial benefit 2015. South-American biology derv stimulates policy frequency to go out, production continues to improve. Country of the key on southeast Asia two countries adds scale, exciting crop increases. But if international crude price is low 2015 move, global biology derv will continue bear pressure, former the consumptive demand of as a result of price of derv of biology derv agio generation will be squashed. End OPEC will reject those who be restricted to produce to make known his position to weigh price of defeat international crude in November, year end of agreement of WTI futures brunt has dropped split 60 dollars / bucket, this price photograph goes than dropping before half an year half. From essence for, the sex of crude market structure that the United States extracts shale oil is brought about in great quantities is superfluous it is this round of dropping prime cause, and the conventional petroleum such as OPEC and Russia yields the second actor of share of low recovery market chooses big country to pull crude market into price war lair. Crude oil is the vane of heavy goods, oil price drops greatly price of your international heavy goods immediately and fall, its take the raw material that the breed such as grease, corn, candy regards of all kinds biology as the sources of energy or substitute situation and crude price are more close together and relevant. Look from angle of biology the sources of energy, oil price of second half of the year takes small serious effect to the manufacturing profit of fuel of each developed country biology continuously. Crude oil is immersed in price war once more, low oil price will make next year market thematic, biology energy market what course to follow? I of ¡¡ of alcohol of fuel of the first part. The United States is in the two big fields of American biology the sources of energy, fuel alcohol industry and biology derv industry are having clear distinction: Biology derv price is long-term relatively derv premium, stimulate the demand of add of active help by the arm of terminal hard, the development that this industry goes a few years relies on policy all the time prop up, but from scope of application for of B5 carry out did not achieve add upper limit, still have constant growth space; Fuel alcohol industry is entered completely after taxation allowance and export custom duty expired 2011 commercialize, but its home consumption is early by 2012 10% what achieved gasoline consumption, because American gasoline consumption is annual metabolic extent is lesser, because this adds a quantity actually to achieve what RFS asks originally to add a capacity hard, be faced with so called “ to add ”(blend Wall) of upper limit problem namely. Review 2014, the fluctuant surging forward with great momentum of American alcohol price, fluctuant interval is 1.48-3.15 dollar / gallon. Because heavy snow is brought about,carry first quarter not free, price of alcohol of haven of the eastpart part considerably violent wind goes up, spot price of alcohol of new York harbor rose inside two months 89.25% , drove factory price of Iowa city alcohol to rise 64.09% , fall after a rise of price of improving alcohol of 2 quarters weather, 3 quarters rise as crop, crude price drops alcohol price goes weak, spot price of alcohol of city of the Iowa at the beginning of October drops to the nadir inside year 1.48 dollars / gallon, achieve in July 2010 since the portion new low, it is good to enter the week that EIA will announce in November to spend crop and reserve data to form benefit to the market, alcohol price goes against crude price and move, rose than 3 quarters end up to photograph of price of the alcohol at the beginning of December 61.33% . By-product DDGS respect, china coverts prohibit DDGS entrance, second half of the year of producer price of DDGS of your United States drops continuously, end will touch explore in October 95 dollars / the minimum price that comes 4 of short ton years partly, the income contribution rate of DDGS glides to 12% , highest Ceng Da reachs this proportion 28% . Raw material respect, american corn is successive two years of high yield, the production that is alcohol provided relatively cheap raw material, spot price of Iowa city corn from May first since drop continuously, the explore below lowest comes 3.17 dollars / bushel, come for 5 years lowermost level. Classics computation, profit of production of medium scale manufacturer is in Iowa city end reachs 1.55 dollars first quarter / the history of gallon is highest value, but as 3 quarters alcohol drop lowest falls to 0.01 dollars / gallon, annual production profit is opposite in light of whole better. The data that publishs according to EIA is calculated, accrete of United States of before 2014 11 months produces fuel alcohol twelve billion nine hundred and five million gallon, compare the corresponding period grew 8.75% last year, predict annual crop hopeful exceeded 14 billion gallon 2014, achieve historical record. Of crop improve on one hand the growth that end is consumption, consumption of before this year 9 months grew 2% compared to the same period, what on the other hand end is exit is driving climb litre, before 9 months exported a quantity to grow 42.89% compared to the same period, prep above goes two years level, four quarters as Brazilian alcohol price rise, american alcohol exit measures hopeful to continue to rise, annual exit measures amplitude or will achieve 50% . Year looks into: Look into 2015, american alcohol industry will suffer element of all directions face to affect. It is policy element. , among them the biggest adjustment is the accretion of corn alcohol the quantity is reduced from former 14.4 billion gallon to 13.01 billion gallon. Of this action roll out solved “ to add the conflict between problem of upper limit ” and RFS standard, but the growth that goes against alcohol industry. Market of second half of the year expects EPA eagerly to be able to go up afresh this year tone adds a level, but not if really. The manufacturing problem as a result of cellulose alcohol (crop of alcohol of cellulose of before this year 10 months 18.2 million gallon, commercialize production to had taken shape, exceed the year RFS level that the end of the year adjusted last year first, but plan formerly with RFS2 still apart is very far. ) EPA may undertake modification to having RFS system 2015, this will make a central point of next year market, but because had achieved petrolic “ ,add upper limit ” actually, EPA go up considerably the accretion that moves corn alcohol standard possibility is not large. 2 it is domestic demand. Crude price goes weak to drop price of gas of be a burden on, the development of past alcohol industry basically relies on its price opposite benzine agio, if prospective gas price falls be more than alcohol to drop, even alcohol premium, will control the active consumption demand of downstream terminal, consumption of predicting annual home will be maintained in gasoline consumption 10% the left and right sides, or the lowest of RFS standard adds a capacity (both will tend eventually consistent) , the price elasticity that alcohol consumes is not big. Look from historical data, american benzine consumes peak value to appeared 2007, achieve 139.4 billion gallon, in last few years lowermost value is the 131.1 billion gallon 2011. From the point of gasoline consumption data, if alcohol adds scale,still maintain growth prices will be found very hard in industry of alcohol of 10% future United States. And downstream terminal is very difficult to the promotion of E15 in last few years, short-term on tone adds scale to still come true hard. 3 it is exit. American alcohol crop predicted to grow above of 700 million gallon 2014, import volume reduces 80% about 240 million gallon, and consumption rises 260 million gallon, export volume rises about 300 million gallon. From above data can see, although alcohol exports the proportion that takes total supply,be only 5% the left and right sides, but increasing what export quantity absolute value considerably is the crucial factor that alcohol yield rises. The growth of exit basically is the country such as Brazil, Canada, European Union. And next defeat of international oil price will reduce the each country use to fuel alcohol probably 2015, in the meantime, the European Union undertakes to the United States the dumping is investigated turning over, the United States will decrease to European Union exit. Whole exports foreground to have growth space hard, crucial factor depends on Brazil, if Brazilian alcohol uses sugar cane to compare no less than attune, alcohol price maintains perch to will be helpful for the exit of American alcohol, because the value between this Brazil alcohol and American alcohol is relative,the relation will become alcohol of influence United States export the main factor that measures number. 4 it is raw material price. American corn was experienced successive two years of high yield, the price falls defeat continuously, if grow an area next year,drop to promote hopeful the promotion of price of American home corn. This rises the raw material cost that causes alcohol, the influence produces profit and manufacturer production initiative, control alcohol price thereby drop. II. Brazilian ¡¡ 14/15 extracts the drought at the beginning of Ji Shounian to affect reduction in production of Brazilian sugar cane, but alcohol output still grows small. From the point of data, to the end of November sugar cane of accumulative total of area of the south in Brazil compresses the quantity is 554 million tons, extract season reduction of output than going up 3% , raw sugar output falls 4.9% reach thirty-one million four hundred and ninety-nine thousand tons, alcohol output grows 3.54% to reach twenty-five billion one hundred and eighty-three million litres compared to the same period, among them anhydrous alcohol output grows 0.18% to reach ten billion six hundred and two million litres, hydrous alcohol output grew 6.12% to reach forteen billion five hundred and eighty-two million litres. Alcohol is with sugar cane comparing 56.49% , than last year the corresponding period is 2.05 high percent. The growth of alcohol crop is crowded occupied partial raw sugar to use sugar cane amount. From production angle looks, because price of international raw sugar falls defeat considerably, bring about Brazilian alcohol produces sugar of accrual good Yu Yuan relatively since this year, stimulative alcohol uses the growth that sugar cane compares, make ethanol production relatively strong. Sale price of annual of alcohol of anhydrous of area of Brazilian emperor Paul is 1.2856-1.5977 Lei Yaer / litre, hydrous alcohol sale price is 1.1307-1.4382 Lei Yaer / litre. Look from sales volume angle, anhydrous alcohol adds scale to will go up on May 1 last year tone comes 25% hind domestic consumption maintains stability basically this year, anhydrous of before 14/15 extracts season 8 months rises alcohol home sales volume is minor 4.41% , hydrous alcohol sales volume is minor drop 3.1% , domestic alcohol total sales volume changes compared to the same period not quite, decrease slightly only 0.09% . The acute that alcohol exit measures reduces the expression of integral sales volume of alcohol of be a burden on, among them volume of anhydrous alcohol export drops 61.6% , volume of hydrous alcohol export drops 43.46% , alcohol always exports a quantity to drop 55.26% . On the whole, total sales volume of alcohol of before 14/15 extracts season 8 months dropped 6.85% . Year looks into: 14/15 extracts sugar cane of area of the south in season Brazil to compress to had neared end, output of predicting sugar cane will fall compared to the same period 5% reach 565 million tons. Look into new year, the production of alcohol and consumption still have uncertainty. Above all, gas price was moved on the government after Brazilian general election 3% , although go up amplitude modulation under before 5% what anticipate, but still be helpful for stimulating future of hydrous alcohol consumption increase. Next, add scale to look from anhydrous alcohol, brazilian government has added legal alcohol upper limit from 25% on move to 27.5% , and Petrobras of national Petroleum Company is in the test adds the scale effect to car newly, the message says to be met the earliest anhydrous alcohol is moved to add scale on Feburary next year. If carry out, season is extracted to will increase consumption of 10% or so anhydrous alcohol below. The 3rd, anhydrous alcohol and the anticipation that hydrous alcohol sales volume grows will make alcohol of the attune on sugar-refinery use sugar cane comparing. But Lei Yaer of Brazilian exchange rate goes weak continuously since this year, up to in December the middle ten days of a month, when Lei Yaer compares the beginning of the year, devalued 15.93% , devalued than the low inside year 25.29% . Be like next year Lei Yaer devalue the process lasts, sugar-refinery will be willing to produce raw sugar more, and reduce alcohol to produce proportion. I of ¡¡ of derv of biology of the 2nd part. Supply exceeds demand brought about American ¡¡ 2014 price of American biology derv fell defeat considerably January, subsequently instantly look forward to is firm pick up to level of the beginning of the year, 3-6 month goes situation is relatively smooth; Sale price of derv of biology of United States of second half of the year follows crude oil goes situation issue defeat considerably, to derv of living things of city of the Iowa at the beginning of December average factory price dropped than the beginning of the year 21.35% to 3.02 dollars / gallon. Produce a field, to case of oil price of young soya bean of the raw material at the beginning of December relatively the beginning of the year dropped 9.28% to 33.03 cent / pound, raw material drops extent is less than biology derv price to drop, except 3 quarters somewhat production of the annual outside small profit all is immersed in deficit condition. Because produce profit not beautiful, total output of derv of biology of United States of before this year 8 months is 791 million litres, compare the corresponding period dropped last year 3.3% . In the meantime, EIA deferred the diesel oil of matter of have a youthful look May the issue date of relevant data, according to our estimation, crop of derv of 13/14 year biology is close to 1.3 billion gallon, estimation drains soya-bean oil left and right sides of 4.8 billion pound; If press natural year computation, the historical record of the 1.339 billion gallon that predicted biology derv crop will be created than 2013 2014 drops 10%-12% comes 11.8-12 100 million gallon. Import side, because allowance cancels, volume of import of American biology derv drops first half of the year to sixty-seven million four hundred and ninety-four thousand gallon, than last year the corresponding period drops 13.6% . 7, the entrance will restore apparently August, achieve repeatedly highest sheet month imports a record since this year, main entrance origin is Indonesian, Argentine. But have final conclusion hard as a result of the allowance policy of biology derv, predict annual imported a quantity to drop than the 315 million gallon 2013 2014 25%-30% . Policy respect, policy ends the taxation drive of industry of diesel oil of matter of opposite of the United States end 2013, at the same time the RFS draft 2014 adds biology derv lowest compulsively the quantity to maintain in 1.28 billion gallon changeless, the vacuum that biology derv industry stimulates completely at policy period. Whether can the market restore the hype cause a temporary clamor of biology derv allowance to the United States 2014, the allowance that the United States will announce March does not have the form of biology derv in the industry, the allowance proposal that biology derv enterprise will offer again April dies without known cause, boule of the United States at the beginning of December passes the resolution that reinstates taxation allowance, but only date from 2014 annual, with had nothing to do 2015, the probability that this draft resolution passes permissibly is more than before this year two times, but right biology derv industry is good without substantial benefit 2015. Year looks into: Crude price drops to be short of with exciting policy breaking was 2014 the main dilemma that biology derv industry faces. If crude price continues to maintain weak momentum,moved 2015, be hit price of your biology derv pressure, influence manufacturer produces profit, if do not have policy stimulation, crop of predicting biology derv will continue be issued to lower levels. Consumptive side needs to pay close attention to biology derv closely the agio circumstance of opposite derv, if agio extent decreases and add a quantity compulsively to was not gone up to move considerably, domestic consumption will have improvement hard. 2015, the expectation of policy will still be the focal topic in exhausted weak market, pay close attention to allowance policy on one hand whether restore, this is the significant move that affects domestic consumption and entrance directly, right the export volume of global biology derv also will produce main effect 2015. If the United States restores taxation to touch no longer,avoid policy, each advocate volume of export yield a country will continue to decrease, global biology derv is produced will more relying on native consumption. On the other hand bureau of American the sources of energy is adjusted to what RFS added a level finally 2014 state and 2015, the makes a circumstance will affect American biology derv long-term spending trend that added a level 2016 affects his finally to produce. II. European Union of Europe, South America, southeast Asia: The European Union is mixed to Argentina Indonesian execute after opposing dumping sanction go into operation of biology derv company leads each member country to rise apparently, import volume glides. The European Union will be turned over to what the United States carries out July this year dumping and turn over allowance custom duty to expire, undertaking at present new round of investigation, till investigate an end,brigadier of mark of original custom duty is carried out, continue keep within limits is worn the entrance of American biology derv. Since this year, the discussion that the European Union adds upper limit about biology fuel still is in continuously, but atmosphere alleviates somewhat, parliament of European Union of the middle ten days of a month will agree to will add upper limit to reduce to 7% in June, this scale prep above goes year of discussion result inside year, of policy become loose to alleviate somewhat to the inhibition that consumes for a long time. Oily world predicts total output of derv of European Union biology will achieve 10.4 million tons 2014, grow 2.16% . South America: Brazilian respect, two big factors promote the growth of consumption of derv of its country live thing, on one hand Brazilian derv demand shows ascendant trend of year after year, arrive 5 years of 2013 from 2008 year all compound increase rate is 5.5% , consumption of your biology derv increases subsequently. On the other hand, biology derv adds scale to be moved from first 2% year after year, brazilian government will announce to divide derv of live thing of country of the key on the pace to add scale ——7 month 1 day to rise May this year on move to B6, tone goes up since November 1 to B7. A percent is moved on every every month will drain biology diesel oil more 50 thousand tons or so, because this predicts,consumption of Brazilian biology derv will increase 400 thousand tons than last year this year. Crop of derv of biology of before 3 quarters adds up to two million one hundred and forty-three thousand five hundred tons, hopeful of crop of derv of predicting annual biology breaks through 3 million tons, will grow 18% than 2013. Predicted 10 thousand tons to hopeful of biology derv crop achieves 360-380 2015. Soya-bean oil is occupied rise than will continueing, hopeful of wastage of annual soya-bean oil achieved 2.3 million tons 2014, increase 400 thousand tons than last year. Predict 10 thousand tons to soya-bean oil wastage also increased 50-60 than this year 2015. At present Brazilian biology derv is produced can be 6.5 million tons about / year. Argentine respect, industry of derv of Argentine first half of the year this year biology is be between the beetle and the block, the opposes dumping punish and policy of allowance of taxation of American biology derv end of the European Union brings about exit suffocate suffocate, at the same time sale price of derv of domestic live thing is accused by governmental canal, manufacturer production lasts deficit, business failure of derv of 8 wife and children biology, stop production of many 20 company. Argentine May government published a series of method to stimulate exit and domestic consumption. It is will export custom duty actually since May 21 from before 21.75% reduce to 11.07% , 2 it is since May 28 time-out collects traffic domain 19% and power plant the cess of 22% , till December 31, 2015, 3 be 8-10% will be moved on domestic sale price. Of custom duty reduce be helpful for the exit destination with new start of business of Argentine biology derv, be like West Africa and North Africa, and as better as Indonesian biology derv competition. Exciting policy got clear result, production of country of Argentina of second half of the year, consumption, exit all improves considerably. It is besides policy stimulation, soya-bean oil price goes weak, biology derv expands relative to the agio extent of derv, also be one of growth reasons of demand of export of stimulative biology derv. Crop of derv of biology of before this year 3 quarters adds up to 1.865 million tons, grow 30.9% compared to the same period. Crop of derv of Argentine 2014 biology predicts to be 2.7 million tons, export a quantity to predict to be 1.65 million tons among them, prep above 1.15 million tons of last year; The attune on domestic consumption reachs 990 thousand tons, year end realizes B10 basically to add a level. But last as oil price of next year international low move, biology derv will shrink relative to the agio extent of derv price narrow, predicting exit will be affected occurrence atrophy, industry of derv of Argentine country live thing will more rely on domestic consumption. Southeast Asia: The beginning of the year is Indonesian this year derv of domestic live thing add scale to rise 10% reduce crude oil in order to support palm oil price to import, plan to be moved to 20% on 2016, achieved 2025 25% . Indonesian government plans to add diesel oil of 4.4 million tons of biology in derv, but because establishment of add of help by the arm is lacked,have not achieve a goal at present. Consumption of Indonesian biology derv is before 2014 3 quarters 1.06 million tons, predict annual consumption can achieve 1.76 million tons 2014. Indonesian and current biology derv is produced can be 5 million tons, crop of before 3 quarters is 2.9 million tons about, had compared last year annual tower above 15% , the growth that speaks a volume is the main reason that yield rises, china made Indonesian biology diesel oil 2014 country of the biggest exit. Malaysia carried out B5 in countrywide limits this year, begin to carry out B7 since November. Because go up,tone adds scale, predict crop of annual biology bavin will achieve 600 thousand tons this year, prep above 470 thousand tons of 2013. If B7 was able to popularize extensively 2015, crop of predicting biology derv will achieve 700 thousand tons / year. The European Union is right Indonesian apply turn over dumping punish to carry brace up the exit of Malaysia PME, malaysia export volume achieved 4 years of maximum 2013, achieve 161 thousand tons, but as a result of European colza high yield, PME advantage is abate, your competition ability of Malaysia PME exit glides, exit of Malaysia biology derv measures before this year 11 months to be 67 thousand tons only, compare the corresponding period glided last year 57.7% . Year looks into: If international crude price was maintained 2015 low move, price of global biology derv will continue bear pressure, former the consumptive demand of as a result of price of derv of biology derv agio generation will be squashed, from this the exit such as Indonesian, Argentina is depended on model export volume of the country will decrease, the growth of each country crop will more of the consumption that relies on native biology derv increase. Because policy of this each country changes to get equipment,fix eyes upon, the change of policy will affect global trade situation, at the same time need pays close attention to the opposite change between biology derv price and derv.
