Biodiesel Production Line factory The European Union will import custom duty to vote through reducing Argentine biology derv on September 7, the decision rises from September 28, derv of will Argentine biology imports custom duty from now on the 22%-25.7% before is reduced to 4.5%-8.1% , those who cause oil price fluctuate considerably, voting the perch since oil of Lv of Pan Zong of the horse before the result is announced drives next rising to reach 26 weeks in positive sentiment, also drive inside and outside dish other oil goes strong. Voting however after the result comes out, oil price is strong however tall hind considerably fall after a rise, so the European Union reduces Argentine biology derv to import custom duty to be opposite after all supply and demand of derv of European Union, Argentine biology balances a watch, what kind of effect does balance watch have to the supply and demand of Argentina and even global oilseed? Does this incident walk along power influence to be become again to price of later period oil how? The author will undertake discussing to these problems.
Argentine production giving birth to bavin suffers exit the impact is bigger
Argentine biology derv production is given priority to with soya-bean oil, soya-bean oil investment and unripe bavin yield to be 1:1 about, argentine biology derv in order to sell a system of fixed quotas for grain production, crop basically depends on domestic consumption and exit, this also is the influencing factor of spending giving birth to bavin of Argentine soya-bean oil likewise. Since 2011, argentine home gives birth to bavin mix into to mix rate is minor to rise, overall maintain between 7-10% , in making domestic consumption firm small add, and the change that the exit of Argentine biology derv is reached exit area policy by international crude price, show bigger fluctuation, the consumption giving birth to bavin that sends crop of Argentine unripe bavin and Argentine soya-bean oil also appears bigger wave motion.
Can see, the European Union collected high specified number to turn over dumping custom duty to Argentine unripe bavin 2013, its export heavy defeat, crop of Argentine biology derv glides considerably nearly 500 million litres, the biology derv consumption of accordingly Argentine soya-bean oil also glides nearly 500 thousand tons. Of case of original 2015 oil price drop considerably send biology derv demand to decrease, the biology derv consumption of crop of Argentine biology derv and soya-bean oil also encounters inflict heavy losses on.
At present Argentine production giving birth to bavin maintains stability
The above of biology derv half of Argentine production is used at exit, among them European Union and United States are his main export destination, before high specified number closing to import custom duty to Argentine unripe Chai Zheng in the European Union, argentine biology derv is given priority to with exporting an European Union, its achieved 1.39 million tons to the exit giving birth to bavin of the European Union 2012, the proportion that holds its to always be exported is as high as 90% , however good view is seldom, in October 2013 European Union with exporting biology diesel oil under cost or market price case for, passed pair of Argentine biology derv to collect the decision that opposes dumping tax, will begin to impose the import custom duty of 22%-25.7% to its in November at of the same age, heavy defeat its are exported to the European Union. Up to current, argentine biology derv does not have exit almost to the European Union, but be in namely same year of biology derv that the United States restores to be mixed to mix into give the taxation of 1 dollar touchs every gallon avoid privilege, the new export destination that makes Argentine unripe a surname in the United States below favourable policy stimulation, argentine 2016 unripe bavin is close to American exit 1.5 million tons, the proportion that holds total export exceeds 90% . #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
Be less than 4 years however, argentine biology derv exports a situation to will happen to change direction quickly again, the tremendous favorable opposition that the beginning of the year faced the exit of Argentine blowout type to grow industry of unripe to home bavin to cause 2017 is attacked, the United States mentioned to be opposite of Argentine biology derv turn over a dumping to turn over allowance investigation. In the preliminary finding that will announce on August 22 in American Department of Commerce, turn over allowance duty tax rate to be as high as 50.29-64.17% , if this tax rate is carried out successfully, argentine unripe bavin is broken basically to American exit by block, plan to collect “ of high specified number to Argentine biology derv in the United States however double during turning over ” custom duty, the European Union reduces what Argentine biology derv imports custom duty to vote for Argentine biology derv new export European Union levelled road, also ignited new hope for Argentine unripe bavin industry.
Observe chart can discover 3 times carefully, argentina exported nearly 1.5 million tons to biology derv of the United States 2016, almost with the European Union collected the exit before turning over dumping custom duty to comparative 2012, considering these year come the constant growth of demand of derv of European Union biology, export latent capacity still is met bigger. In the United States and European Union the different policy change to Argentine biology derv falls, argentina is exported to biology derv of the United States or be broken by block of tall custom duty, but the European Union is new unlocked market enough holds Argentine existing output, the biology derv export that predicts Argentine production will turn to an European Union from the United States, but balance a watch to be done not have basically from the unripe bavin supply and demand that sees Argentina on the whole too big fluctuant, of corresponding Argentine soja compress, consumption of derv of the exit of exit and soya-bean oil, biology also is not had produce too big change.
To beautiful beans exit concussion decreases somewhat
Although be below the double incident influence of European Union and United States, argentine production giving birth to bavin predicts to will keep stable, of soja compress, the exit of exit and soya-bean oil and biology derv consumption also won’t produce too big change, see an effect however alone or exist, if the European Union was not passed,vote, undertake “ to its in the United States double after turning over ” punish block to break its to export, argentine biology derv exports will quick atrophy, argentina will reduce consumption of about 1.5 million tons derv of soya-bean oil biology, and this needs about 7.5 million tons of soja to undertake compressing. The soja of Dan Agen the court of a feudal ruler cannot by white many millions of ton, redundant bean certainly will will undertake digestive through increasing export, or export soja directly or compress soya-bean oil reexport, but no matter which are planted means, without doubt the export that these addition will produce impact to global oilseed market, to having the United States that the price counterpoises, here concussion falls, beautiful beans is exported or can appear bigger glide, to its the price produces adverse effect, affect global oilseed price then. However the European Union imports custom duty to Argentine biology derv reduce, make Argentine biology derv can be exported afresh to the European Union, the European Union will consume these redundant soja through biology derv, reduce its to pound, will fat to global soja, beans price produces positive effect. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
To palm oil consumption produces certain impact
Besides the influence to soya-bean oil, the European Union reduces Argentine biology derv to import custom duty to still will affect the biology derv consumption of palm oil. The European Union collected high specified number to import custom duty to Argentine biology derv 2013, biology derv entrance glides considerably, stem from the complement of breach of opposite bavin demand, the biology derv yield of European Union area appears to grow accordingly.
Same, this the European Union unlocks an entrance to Argentine biology derv, the to European Union area biology derv production on will certain level causes impact, and basically cast as derv of European Union biology one of makings palm oil, consumption of its biology derv also will give now to slip subsequently. The biology derv raw material of current European Union basically is rape oil, palm oil and deserted meal oil, among them since after the European Union decreased to import and raise yield to Argentine biology derv 2013, the biology derv palm oil that the European Union produces is cast makings occupy than appearing relatively grow substantially, some closer year stabilize gradually 19% around.
The biology derv palm oil that the European Union produced 2012 casts makings quantity to be 1.47 million tons, and to 2013 because palm oil value is relative cheap, use at making biology derv have price advantage more, this numerical value rises quickly reach 2.36 million tons, grow nearly 900 thousand tons, if Argentine biology derv can recapture European Union market afresh, take no account of demand growth, according to before replace a quantity to calculate, the biology derv consumption of palm oil will reduce about 900 thousand tons. Although consider real factor, the European Union is some closer the yield of year of growth is replaced entirely on can impossible horse, but it is OK to guard the palm oil that estimates 4489 tons to give birth to bavin consumption to decrease achieve. When palm oil of current southeast Asia is in high yield, export data goes to later period prices undoubtedly situation the effect that has a key, and import big country as palm oil, of the demand of derv of palm oil biology of the European Union decrease, or will make southeast Asia exports aggravation to the European Union, affect its to export expression, produce certain adverse effect to palm oil price. (Shi Ligong of Tian Yaxiong of contributor of engage by special arrangement, the article comes from produce futures net to be achieved solely formerly)