Biodiesel Technology 1, BI 2017 is annual in look into: Market of global biology fuel
Demand of global biology fuel may increase in second half of the year, because PIS/Cofins taxation is touched,avoid invalidation, Brazil avoid an end to cause alcohol slow down in demand. Because European Union policy is gradually clear, american export increases to Brazilian alcohol, the United States was dissolved to supply surplus problem on certain level, below the stimulation of these elements, manufacturing business may see demand rises. Does beautiful congress support what kind of but level of second birth energy? Policy is more doubtful after appearing on the stage from Telangpu calm. The price of fossil fuel is very low still, the competitive pressure that it brings still exists, but competitive pressure is abate, because Oupeike agrees,cut output.
2, business of biology fuel production runnings beat the market fiducial, because Oupeike reduces inventory
Crude price drops 11% later, biology fuel price bears very great pressure, ou Peike and country of production of a few oil (include Russia) may cut output, partial solution supplies surplus problem definitely. According to 2017 final but level of second birth energy (RFS) , but output of second birth energy can increase 480 million gallon, original plan has 18.8 billion gallon only, among them corn alcohol increases 200 million gallon. This year up to now, fuel of biology of BI whole world is coequal group of groups (Biofuel Peer Group) the index rose 12.6% , index of MSCI ACWI whole world rose 10.6% .
3, share price of company of European biology fuel rises, difference of price of harm of Chinese custom duty trades
2017-2018 money year, cropEnergies battalion closes will achieve new tall, the factory of Wilton already put into production. Because annual profit grew 61% , cropEnergies share price has risen this year 107% , in Peng Bo biology fuel is coequal group of groups are medium banner, it is Verbio next, grow 34% . Pacific Ethanol drops 36% , green Plains drops 19% , because China is collected,turn over dumping duty to bring about dry lees price to drop. Fuel of biology of BI Peng rich is coequal the member of group of groups rises on average 12.6% .
4, American alcohol industry is benefited, Brazil is damaged: Looked into in year 2016
The growth rate of biology fuel industry will put delay 2017, although alcohol of United States of second half of the year produces chamber of commerce to continue to grow, because native demand increases, export increases. Because put forward to mixing mandatory requirement, brazilian alcohol imports a quantity to may increase, basically come from the United States, the production because of Brazilian homeland puts the emphasis on carbohydrate production before business, is not alcohol. Alcohol demand of Europe may decrease, nevertheless Germany changes the key to biology fuel, aim to reduce greenhouse gas to discharge, may cause harm to demand.
5, will the goal of production of alcohol rose 2017, the scope that perhaps increases is insufficient#p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
Energy Information Administration (abbreviation EIA) estimation, american alcohol output may increase 2017 3% , achieve 1.03 million pails everyday. Original estimation has 1.01 million pails only, afore-mentioned appraise values may increase again, specific should see American summer drive the demand of season, still an element wants a consideration, green Plains and De Lan of A Chedan Ni Ersi rice (Archer-Daniels-Midland) predicting foreign country is met to the demand of American alcohol rise. Goal of production of ethanol of EPA2017 final corn is 15 billion gallon, 2016 is 14.5 billion gallon, crop increases to also can spur demand. The crop 2017 is equivalent to producing 1.04 million pails everyday.
EPA puts forward such target to have a premise: After Telangpu is elected but policy of second birth fuel won’t be changed. From the point of the election, EPA framework may be adjusted, be worth photograph comparing with the target 2017, the target cost 2018 is having bigger variable.
6, biology fuel makes dosage rises, entrance and native production can satisfy this kind of requirement
According to the short-term energy plan of EIA, quantity of American biology specific fuel consumption may increase 2017 7.4% . Because demand increases, the target yield that increases crude qualitative diesel oil rises, demand may increase than 2016 because of the entrance 8.5% , native crop increases 5.1% (everyday 1.04 million pails) and get satisfaction. The import quantity of importer may continue to rise, RIN of crude qualitative diesel oil (Renewable Identification Number, but mechanism of number of serial of second birth the sources of energy) the price is 1 dollar about. According to RIN, in accord with bureau of protection of American the sources of energy but standard of second birth fuel can obtain taxation derate.
7, because of demand of alcohol of growth of crude qualitative diesel oil, Europe add fast may drop
According to the data of USDA, the mix into that carries the alcohol in fuel in the European Union mixes a quantity to may drop 0.6% , achieved 51.4 billion liter 2017. Additional, benzine wastage decreases, fuel of a few biology repeats change of policy of fuel of biology of computation, Germany, these metropolises hurt demand. The demand of crude qualitative diesel oil may increase 39% , achieve 144 gallon. Meanwhile, ask in Europe the voice that washs out palm oil stage by stage is louder and louder, this action may bring about crude qualitative diesel oil to rise in price.
8, RFS may revise, European Union policy is gradually clear: Looked into in year 2017
EPA gave corn alcohol manufacturing trader this year a few breath time, ultimate goal has 15 billion gallon only, 2016 is 14.5 billion gallon. The palm accuses the White House and senatorial republic party to express to support to revising the proposed law of RFS. Taxation can be obtained to touch when the United States produces business to be mixed in mix into of crude qualitative diesel oil avoid, this kind of policy may end, perhaps change. Be in Europe, policy is gradually Anacreontic, traffic carries fuel before 2020 will mix into is mixed of 10% but second birth the sources of energy, this one policy may allow the demand growth of biology fuel. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
9, policy of EPA biology fuel is more doubtful after Telangpu appears on the stage calm
This year, the goal of production of final corn ethanol that EPA gives out is 15 billion gallon, increase 500 million gallon than 2016, compare the difference that still has 500 million gallon with photograph of legal 2017 target, EPA gave manufacturing business to make up for the time of difference. Nevertheless, the target of RFS (especially the target after 2017) may change ceaselessly, go out in memorandum middle finger because of presidential Telangpu, want to carry out management to freeze policy to EPA. The goal of production of derv of 2017 final biology is 2 billion gallon, increased 2.1 billion gallon 2018.
A few enterprises can be affected: De Lan of A Chedan Ni Ersi rice, Green Plains and Valero, they are the United States’ biggest ethanol production business, biology derv of the United States produces business to include RenewableEnergy Group and FutureFuel.
10, policy of modification biology fuel enters agenda of congressional near future unlikelily
Supportive RFS is before presidential Telangpu, but a lot of republic party Moses ask to reform however. When the first sky holds the post of, telangpu issues a note, government of abstruse Ba Ma ever signed and issue agreement of a RFS, telangpu’s memorandum the remit to of become effective time the agreement on March 21. Memorandum was not aimed at RFS. Contrary, it suits to have effect at place but still be in the regulations system that pursue. Party of republican of the White House obtained chip now, can reduce RFS goal considerably.
Industry influence: RFS reform bill is in unlikely 2017 it is Telangpu or congressional is preferential processing item. Biology fuel goal of production is higher, the cost that American refinery achieves a regulation to need is higher also, these enterprises include Phillips 66, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Tesoro, HollyFrontier, Western Refining and PBF Energy.
11, not firm 2017 policy shakes repeatedly biology derv produces business
2017 when the beginning of the year, american mix into mixes taxation to touch avoid (BTC) policy lose efficacy, the profit of business of biology derv production is more doubtful calm. Since 2009, BTC ever 4 invalidation, congress restarts ceaselessly later. Because BTC is benefited,produce business, this policy increased the value of crude qualitative diesel oil, the revenue that when be being mixed with derv mix into, every gallon can gain 1 dollar is touched avoid, renewable Energy Group and European Neste are benefited accordingly.
If BTC policy cannot restore, more Neste crop may be digested in European interior. The supply that this action may bring about Europe grows, be in same time, eni and Total also plan the yield that hydrogenation rape oil raises in France, Italy before 2020.
12, reimpose PIS/Cofins duty may hurt alcohol demand
In Brazil, a few drivers use mixture fuel, begin Brazil to carry out PIS/Cofins duty afresh from January 1, every liter is collected 0.12 Leiyaer, below the stimulation of this kind of policy, the driver that uses mixture fuel may abandon anhydrous alcohol, turn with “Gasoline-c” (a kind of of Brazil mixture benzine) . Why? Because in Brazilian anhydrous alcohol and petrolic price are compared,became 0.71x, it is 0.66x before New Year. Considering want levy, ratio falls unlikelily 0.7x is the following. If under 0.7x, mixture fuel driver can buy more anhydrous alcohol, because its energy is made an appointment with,be petrolic 70% . In Brazil, the new car of 87% can use anhydrous alcohol. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
13, low oil price still brings pressure to biology fuel: Looked into in year 2017
2017, biology fuel produces business to still need to face the pressure that comes from fossil fuel, although Oupeike, a few oil produce a country to cut output, continue to 2018 all the time first quarter, pressure is met surrive. Demand of derv of biology of a few markets is low fan, for instance Germany, because the price of ester of fatty acid armour is 1.8 times what exceed low sulfur derv, and Germany still changed the policy that cuts down a target to concern with greenhouse gas. China is carried out to American dry lees oppose dumping policy, make compress price difference covers interest (Crush Spreads) be affected, because corn is supplied this year enough, the circumstance may alleviate somewhat.
14, Ou Peike reduction of output makes profit margin of business of production of derv of contractible, biology promotes BoHo
2017, biology derv produces the profit margin of business to be able to continue to promote, because Oupeike agrees to extend time of reduction of output, last to March 2018 all the time. What BoHo points to is the price difference of American soya-bean oil and fuel futures. This year up to now, hoHo is 86 cent on average about every gallon, the corresponding period was 1.15 dollars about 2016. BoHo narrows the manufacturing cost that means biology derv drops, mix into is mixed more economy, the profit margin that produces business can rise, for instance Renewable Energy Group, FutureFuel is mixed RBF Port Neches.
15, dry lees price forms pressure to alcohol manufacturer
China is carried out to American corn dry distiller’s grains oppose dumping policy, the profit margin that this policy may continue to produce business to corn alcohol causes second half of the year pressure. China is right American DDGS (corn alcohol flooey and soluble substance) impose the custom duty of 33.8% , the value ratio that brings about every bushel corn dropped last year 44 cent, than 64 cent dropping 2 years ago. Although the demand of a few countries rises, for instance Mexico, the addition of these demand may prevent DDGS price to glide further, but corn supplies surplus problem to may last whole 2017. The profit margin that loves alcohol of corn of China of carry on one’s shoulder has fallen to every bushel 1.63 dollars, it is 1.82 dollars before New Year. One bushel corn can produce alcohol of about 2.8 gallon and 17.75 pounds dry lees.
16, gas of low, greenhouse reduces fossil fuel price the platoon may be mixed to biology derv mix into create restriction
2017, the demand of German biology derv can decrease, price of derv of biology of ester of fatty acid armour is 1.8 times what exceed low sulfur derv, greenhouse gas decreases a target change, alcohol to bring competition ability on the price, these elements can bring about demand to decrease. Additional, because the price of biology fuel is a lot of more expensive than fossil fuel, the person that so mix into is mixed is not willing more is used, those who make exceed a requirement. 1-2 month, before the use of biology derv compares a year, decreased 17% , although the use of derv increased 4% . #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
Since 2015, discharge must cut down 3.5% , cut down since 2017 4% , cut down again after 2020 6% .
17, crude oil rises in price encourage an enterprise to mix alcohol in mix into of second half of the year
The United States makes an enterprise free decide the mix into of the alcohol in benzine mixes a quantity, second half of the year this kind of policy may last, crude oil futures tells us the price of every pails of crude oil is 52 dollars, second half of the year was 47 dollars 2016. The time that Ou Peike agrees with to will cut output extends 9 months, this action may be offerred for the price of fossil fuel prop up. Alcohol gas blends raw material every gallon discount 20 cent, average first quarter discount 6 cent, 2016 2 quarters price of every gallon excessive 9 cent. If alcohol price does not rise, may encourage enterprise mix into to enter more alcohol, exceed 10% , 10% it is upper limit originally.
To the influence of the enterprise: Niersimidelan produces A Chedan can 17.2 billion gallon, 100 million gallon of Poet Biorefining 166, they are the United States’ biggest ethanol production business. Still have business of a few large-scale production additionally, include Green Plains, Valero, Pacific Ethanol.
18, price of alcohol raw material may rise 2017, Brazilian production business gets hurt
Forecast consensus according to commodity, the raw material cost of business of production of American corn ethanol rose 2017 3.2% , manufacturer of soja biology derv increased only 0.3% . From the analyst beforehand appraise median looks, the price of raw this year cane sugar is every pound 18.9 dollars, rise than 2016 4.1% , alcohol of Brazilian sugar cane produces the profit margin of business to may be pounded, because Leiyaer takes strong conference,exciting Brazil imports American corn alcohol. A few alcohol of European produce business to use wheat, their cost won’t go 2017.