wholesale Biodiesel Production Line Policy of American biology derv blows warm wind at the beginning of December, EPA of arrange of protection of American the sources of energy announced RFS but second birth the sources of energy adds a level. Biology derv added a target to be 1.9 billion gallon 2016, . Added a target to be 2 billion gallon 2017. The United States biology derv is actual 2014 crop slightly under 1.3 billion gallon, ended 2015 at present (came in January in August) crop is 838 million gallon (the corresponding period was 802 million) last year. About 50% what 6 months soya-bean oil used at the dosage that biology derv manufactures to take total supply in the past. Assume biology derv crop compared set object 2016 low 400 million gallon (with in recent years the situation is same) , the scale that assumes soya-bean oil is used at biology derv to produce at the same time and near future are same, hopeful anticipate biology derv added a quantity to will increase 170 million gallon 2016, this means soya-bean oil year demand increases 5-6 100 million pounds. Predict amplitude of final and effective demand should be in 100 million pounds of 3-4.
The soya-bean oil demand that USDA forecasts 15/16 year to be used at biology derv to produce at present year than will raising 150 million pound. What need an attention at the same time is, the oilseed that report of USDA11 month supply and demand announces according to the near future compresses the report will move 265 million pound on soya-bean oil inventory only, since supply and demand will report in September the amplitude modulation on soya-bean oil inventory is 515 million pound. After EPA policy is announced, predict inventory of soya-bean oil of American 15/16 year will be reduced to 1.8 billion pound (about 820 thousand tons of) . Consume reserve data according to what American Ministry of Agriculture announced a few days ago, we are compared to the consumptive inventory of beautiful soya-bean oil in the light of prospective soya-bean oil effective demand increment makes a scene analyse. Assume amplitude of final and effective demand should be in 300 million pound and the report of month of.11 of 600 million pound according to USDA, the inventory consumption of beautiful soya-bean oil is compared for 10.74% , but after new biology derv policy points to derivative stage, the market anticipates tomorrow generally one year hopeful of effective demand increment obtains beautiful beans soya-bean oil 3-6 100 million pounds. We make simple scene analysis, the inventory consumption that did not come one year is compared between 7.7%-9.2% . The trend that the existence of American soya-bean oil begs for be less than, but among them variable is crude price. If crude price lasts low fan, of biology derv because cost issue comes true very hard,replace action general.
OPEC is on the hedge Yao of reduction of output cannot period the super data Zhou Zhong last week, blame farming data shines continuously eye, but after data is announced of crude oil drop range is not big. Although crude oil is put in apparent commodity attribute, but be in this 6 years low always, the index of crucial factor dollar that affects the price can bend house second line only, masterstroke of supply and demand will continue to lead crude oil the price. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
After blame farming passes, the report of OPEC conference causes crude oil to dive considerably, be in later expand drop. The Iran after because cannot forecast punish be removinged,OPEC expresses during can release the supply of how many, the the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries did not come to an agreement to crop upper limit. The conventional crop upper limit before is daily 30 million pails, but actual output is daily achieve 31.5 million pails. In backside of this conference summary, OPEC seizes the market share of American shale oil to contend for, crude oil not the intent of reduction of output has been compared apparent, if the market expects crude oil,depreciate can cause OPEC systole to produce still can remain time. So of prospective oil price walk along situation more ground to rely on the United States to be opposite of oil output cut down, and be not Oupeike, and the United States arrives probably before the end of next year just meet somewhat act.
Meeting warm winter season, the library exists to be accumulated continuously, oil storage capacity is close to perch, growth of rising market economy puts delay, international society cancels possibly to oil punish of Iran, will make the main reason that restricts crude price to go up, do not eliminate crude price to drop further.
Ell Ni Nuo ascends arena crude price to last again low fan, biology derv concept is about to die young very likely. Whether continue raise, need new theme—-Weather. According to newest message, the crop that Nuo climate or crop of terminative and Indonesian palm oil last 18 years adds ell Buddhist nun this month situation. The report calls 7-10 the month advocate the rainfall that produces island of the Sumatra austral the area is only and normal of the value 50% less than. Reduction of output anticipates can be in probably report lieutenant general of 10 days has this month reflect, but still cannot see ell Ni Nuo now whether appear to be affected duratively. The consumption of winter palm oil lies off-season, at present very large market share basically still is replaced by soya-bean oil place. Although reduction of output comes true, below the economic background that puts delay, demand still also is decreasing, can reach with looking on the amount that this import palm oil from country of nearly a few the middle of a month, the entrance of the travel in China is measured since October be in 1 million tons the following. Of consumption fatigued and weak will restrict rebound palmily height, picture 2008 rebound greatly prices appears very hard again. But palm oil 605 agreement still hopeful is greeted rise prices, attention palm oil goes the speed of inventory.
In crude oil supply and demand lopsided, and the likelihood is in the end of the year just got 2016 by the crop of American dominant cut and below ameliorative setting, the interest good policy of biology derv is very bad practical. Near future crude oil may expand drop, biology derv concept escapes hard things that are stale and unfasionable. The main hotspot of city basically is weather after go up, phenomenon of ell Ni Nuo whether let palm oil as scheduled reduction of output, the main attention that can make prospective market is nodded, also be the main kinetic energy that grease relay goes up. Before because this is in,palm oil reduction of output is fulfilled, of grease rebound to restrict affection of be issued to lower levels to continue very hard in weak force crude oil. But near future soya-bean oil greets consumptive busy season, drop extent still accepts restriction. On operation level, still can meet low make agreement of much oil far month; To dovish investor, the author continues to recommend far month the retrorse strategy covering interest with poor price of palm of 605 agreement beans, valence differs next seeing to reach 900 yuan every tons. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#