wholesale Biodiesel Production Line Depend on to reduce air pollution and abroad the sources of energy, american basis ” 2005 proposed law of policy of taxation of the sources of energy ” arrange of environmental protection of accredit United States is carried out in the round but level of second birth energy, ask every benzine and derv production business and importer are added to the middle of carriage fuel but second birth fuel, set include fuel of derv of cellulose biology fuel, biology, advanced biology inside but the lowermost dosage of second birth fuel standard. United States Congress is in 2007 ” independence of American the sources of energy and safe act ” made clear further before 2022 annual but second birth the sources of energy uses an amount, ask 2022 but the consumptive gross of second birth the sources of energy must increase 36 billion gallon from the 8 billion gallon 2008, this act place limits but second birth the sources of energy basically is biology alcohol and biology derv. After American economy has grown at full speed, according to the rule with degressive marginal propensity to consume, the growth of income is right of consumption of soya-bean oil edible carry brace up effect is abate. In last few years, consumption maintains year of edible of American home soya-bean oil in 13 billion —150 100 million pounds, had lost the momentum of successive growth.
To it opposite, volume of soya-bean oil supply is rising ceaselessly however. Since 2010, soya-bean oil produces per year a quantity to raise 22.6 billion pound from 18.9 billion pound, year all increase rate is amounted to 2.58% . Increase supply newly more and more the consumption that depends on industrial utility, as but the development that second birth the sources of energy uses, biology derv industry rises stage by stage.
Began 2000, open of biology derv industry the development mode of blowout type. Up to 2016 the end of the year, biology derv demand increases 200 times, from 10 million gallon promotion comes 2.06 billion gallon. Nevertheless, crop is added fast a little inferior.
The graph produces per year a quantity for derv of American B100 biology
Because domestic available supply is insufficient, import market is able to flourish flourishingly, the United States exports a country to turn into completely from biology derv the entrance counts a state, year of only import volume of American biology derv achieve 14.4 million pails, 29.4% what take countrywide total demand.
According to arrange of American the sources of energy (EIA) data, biology derv production of the United States is given priority to with vegetable oil and animal oil. Among them, plant oily dosage outclass animal is oily.
The soja that the United States is a tradition produces big country, the plant oily majority in its biology derv comes from soya-bean oil. Output of American biology derv is total carry growth state, , occupy be in than maintaining 60% the left and right sides, it is the most important raw material in production of American biology derv, corn (1663, – 4, – the dosage of oil of 0.24%) oil, rape oil, animal is adjusted gradually to 10% . #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
The graph is American biology derv main raw material is occupied than arriving as a result of soya-bean oil the conduction of biology derv mechanism, current, the industrial consumption of American soya-bean oil exceeds 27% of crop. The linkage sex of soya-bean oil and biology derv is sent more close together, the crop change of biology derv is right soya-bean oil even the effect that oil market had the whole world to “ pulls one hair and move systemic ” .
The United States undertakes to Argentina and Indonesian biology derv double turn over investigation
Current, the country of the biggest source that American biology derv imports is mixed for Argentina Indonesian. 2013, the turns over dumping policy to weigh defeat two countries biology derv that the European Union carries out to Argentina and Indonesian biology derv is exported, and the United States restores to give to derv of biology of add of help by the arm the taxation of 1 dollar touchs every gallon in this years avoid privilege, make the United States becomes the exit destination with Argentina and Indonesian biology new diesel oil. 2014—2016 year, argentine, Indonesian to biology derv of the United States exit measures increase sharply. Among them, , amplitude is 843% ; , amplitude is 117% .
2016, american biology derv always imports a quantity to be 693 million gallon, total consumption is 2.06 billion gallon. Among them, import 443 million gallon from Argentina, 63.90% what take total entrance amount; From Indonesian entrance 111 million gallon, 16.07% what take total entrance amount. In those days, the biology derv of American Cong Agen the court of a feudal ruler and Indonesian entrance, nearly 80% what take total entrance amount, nearly 27% what take total consumption.
The graph imports Argentine, Indonesian biology derv amount for the United States
Association of generator of American biology derv thinks, argentina and fact of exit of diesel oil of Indonesian opposite matter export drawback to cause the market all right serious injustice, a working station that industry of American biology derv provides the menace that sufferring unfair trade. Argentine, Indonesian exit caused huge impact to industry of American biology derv, american Department of Commerce referred pair of Argentine SME and Indonesian PME to committee of American international trade in April 2017 turn over a dumping to turn over allowance to investigate application.
On May 5, committee of American international trade is voting passed this one application, admit low imports industries of pair of American biology derv to cause materiality harm, predict to begin to collect from August instead allowance duty and begin to collect from October oppose dumping tax.
Undertake to Argentina and exit of Indonesian biology derv the dumping turns over allowance investigation turning over, be not inside global limits first. Be in early 2013, the European Union is mixed to Argentina with respect to the decision Indonesian the custom duty that imposes 41.9%—49.2% and 8.8%—23.3% respectively. 2016, peruvian also collect biology derv to turn over to Argentina surely definitely allowance and oppose dumping tax. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
If the United States succeeds to be collected to Argentina and Indonesian biology derv,turn over a dumping to oppose allowance tax, what kind of change will the demand of beautiful soya-bean oil produce? Later development makes public data to undertake calculating to increment of demand of beautiful soya-bean oil with respect to the basis.
According to EIA2009—2016 year crop of derv of American B100 biology and soya-bean oil dosage statistic, can calculate piece, every produce diesel oil of 1 gallon biology, need soya-bean oil 3.9 pounds.
The watch yields for soya-bean oil and biology derv investment circumstance
EPA was announced in November 2016 2017 but level of second birth energy and 2018 dosage of biology derv lowest, increase the dosage of biology derv lowest 2018 2.1 billion gallon from the 2 billion gallon 2017, and consumption of derv of biology of annual United States was 2.06 billion gallon 2016.
Demand of lowest of American biology derv was 2.1 billion gallon 2018, grow computation with scale by entrance and demand, import volume is 706 million pound. Beautiful soya-bean oil replaces Argentina and Indonesian biology diesel oil completely, in considering soya-bean oil is produced in biology derv occupy than, of soya-bean oil and biology derv yield than, consumption of beautiful soya-bean oil will raise 2.203 billion pound. Come so, every replace beautiful soya-bean oil Argentina and demand of Indonesian biology derv 10% , consumption of beautiful soya-bean oil will raise 220 million pound.
If the United States is right,Argentina and success of Indonesian biology derv are carried out double oppose policy, will begin to collect in August instead allowance duty and will begin to collect in October oppose dumping tax, criterion after August, derv of Argentine, Indonesian biology can lose original price competition dominant position.
Because the market year of soya-bean oil is annual will come in October second year in September, carry out in the round after October turn over a dumping to turn over allowance policy to express an influence evenly to the supply and demand of year of 2016/2017 of beautiful soya-bean oil lesser, and year of main effect 2017/2018.
2016, consumption of American biology derv is 2.06 billion gallon, actual output is 1.568 billion gallon. In addition, biology derv is produced per year can be 23.14 gallon, produce can utilization rate is 67.76% . The data that USDA publishs shows, 2017/2018 year, crop of American soya-bean oil predicts to be twenty-four billion nine hundred and seven million pound, consumption predicts to be 14 billion pound. After contented edible is consumed, the rest soya-bean oil is producible derv of B100 of 2.797 billion gallon biology.
The watch is produced for American biology derv can reach 2016 monthly crop
Will in order to produce can effective utilization rate look, the biology diesel oil that beautiful 2017 soya-bean oil produces, replace Argentina and Indonesian the import volume of 50% , the question is not big. To it corresponding, demand of beautiful soya-bean oil will increase 1.1 billion pound. USDA will report in June in, the biology derv demand of will beautiful soya-bean oil increases the 6.45 billion pound to 2017/2018 year from the 6.2 billion pound of 2016/2017 year, go up amplitude modulation is apparently insufficient. If the United States succeeds to be mixed to Argentina Indonesian collect turn over a dumping to oppose allowance tax, the biology derv demand of beautiful soya-bean oil returns those who have 850 million pound to go up at least air space. According to afore-mentioned data, , relatively the 2.062 billion pound of 2016/2017 year decreases 33% , inventory consumption is compared also will from 2016/2017 year 9.25% glide to 6.08% . #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
Can foreknow, the United States is right of Argentina and Indonesian biology derv double oppose policy will great improvement supply and demand of 2017/2018 year beautiful soya-bean oil expresses period end inventory evenly, make period end inventory glides considerably, inventory consumption is compared reduce further, form to price of far month soya-bean oil then carry brace up.
Allowance turns to biology derv to produce business to will carry Zhen Jisheng to produce glow
Crude price goes low, manufacturing profit glides, together with suffers entrance concussion, american biology derv was produced 2017 relatively 2016 somewhat atrophic. According to the data that publishs by EIA5 month, 2017 1 quarter, crop of American biology derv is 302 million gallon, the corresponding period was 331 million gallon 2016, the corresponding period was 248 million gallon 2015. 2017 1 quarter crop although relatively the corresponding period glided 2016, but glide extent relatively on period put delay, and exceed 2015 the corresponding period 20% .
The watch contrasts for crop of American biology derv (1 million gallon)
Hold the post of American president Telangpu newly to be opposite but second birth the sources of energy supports supportive attitude. Raise start working rate to encourage derv of domestic live thing to produce business, consideration of United States Congress will confuse dealer to mix into every gallon the allowance of 1 dollar turns to manufacturing business, in order to increase the profit of business of biology derv production, raise yield then. Policy adjusts the manufacturing glow that produces diesel oil of biology of exciting United States business, biology derv crop will exceed 2017 2016, raise Zhen Meidou oily requirement thereby.
Current, biology derv market still is put in a lot of not certain factor, but OK and affirmative is, if double turn over policy to be able to carry out, adjust as scheduled to producing the allowance policy of business, the demand amplitude of so beautiful soya-bean oil will exceed the market to anticipate.
In addition, policy direction of future also depends on the economic value that biology derv replaces to crude oil. Current, OPEC reduction of output anticipates not as good as, although reach the agreement that extends time of reduction of output, multilateral and consistent break off a friendship to also explain the trustful concern between member country is very delicate secondhand to Qatar. In the meantime, on this time place, american role is quite important. Data shows, cost of exploitation of American shale oil is less than 40 dollars / bucket, amount of artesian well platform increases considerably compared to the same period, the market predicts, to 2017 the end of the year, day of American crude oil all crop is in 800 thousand —100 10 thousand pails. Below this setting, active and fast increase production begins the United States exit, let OPEC be immersed in or to abandon or of reduction of output abandoning the predicament of market share. Crude oil later period goes situation is more pessimistic, and crude price is lower, of biology derv replace a sense smaller, the crop of opposite matter diesel oil forms potential benefit sky. #p#·ÖÒ³±êÌâ#e#
In light of whole, if the United States is right,Argentina and Indonesian biology derv success are collected turn over a dumping to oppose allowance tax, will carry brace up the biology derv demand that supply and demand of 2017/2018 year beautiful soya-bean oil expresses correspondence evenly. In the report of USDA6 month, the amplitude modulation on the biology derv demand of beautiful soya-bean oil is apparently insufficient, later period still has promotion space. In addition, biology derv allowance mixes business to turn to manufacturing business by mix into, also can stimulate derv of American native land biology to produce, raise the requirement of pair of beautiful soya-bean oil then. Wait for anticipate implementation, the period end inventory of beautiful soya-bean oil will glide considerably, inventory consumption is compared will reduce further, price of far month soya-bean oil is benefited from which, this also is soya-bean oil the opportunity from the break out of an encirclement in heavy interest empty factor.
(writer unit: The letter is built in send futures)